The situation in Eastern Europe is a tricky one. They do not have time honoured political traditions, only vague memories thereof in some countries, not even that in others. The process of transition seems to be painful in all the former Eastern Bloc countries. Right now Hungary is the most turbulent. The unfortunate side of this turbulence is that a well-meaning, or maybe intentionally s*#t-stirring, person leaked a very short quote from a long speech of the prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany, a speech that was meant to be kept behind closed doors, to be heard only by the prime minister's cabinet.
The present leadership is basically a left wing party that came to power some two years ago, promising a lot of liberal measures, improvements in all areas of life. Isn't that what the population is expecting now that they joined the United Europe? The problem is that when communism collapsed in these countries they were literally bancrupt. Any government that is elected there has two choices: either they keep some or all of their electoral promises and get the country into a deeper and deeper finaincial quagmire, or they apply temporary austerity measures until the country's financial standing improves and they are truly able to afford social improvements.
But to return to the present situation in Hungary let's see what happened there at the end of September. The leaked speech was made sometime in the summer, after a long session of discussions, plan proposals, etc., In his speech Gyurcsany decided to face his colleagues with an impassioned message saying: "Look guys, in the first two years of our power we basically lied to the people, lying to them day and night, leading them by the nose, promising them heaven with all its stars. We know it is impossible to go on like this. We have to get our act together, tighten the purse strings, do things right." So on and so on. The speech was about 20 minutes long. The quote that hit the media was this short section: "...we basically lied to the people, lying to them day and night, leading them by the nose...", end of quote! So what could all decent people do? They got upset, some of them taking to the street, demanding the immediate dissolution of the government and new elections. Unfortunately, as things often happen in such situations, things snowballed, unsavoury elements joined the demonstrations, causing all kinds of material damage, basically trying to create a good imitation of a popular uprising, a revolution. Except that such a thing is totally unwarranted in this instance.
The blame first of all lies with the person who fed the media the unfairly trunkated quote. We are all familiar with the power of first impressions in the media. People form an initial opinion and after that, no matter how many discussions take place with proper clarifications, dissections of the issue, most people will feel reluctant to rethink their original gut reaction and change their position. Not to speak of those who do not have the time or the educational wherewithal to really understand the whole issue.
Being very aware of this, the Hungarian opposition gleefully uses the opportunity to try and topple the government, hoping that they then can have a clean grab at the seats of power. Hungary's right has a charismatic populist leader in Viktor Orban. Good speaker, who can play the heartstrings of the simple people, who promises great reforms, prosperity. As the original street protests unfolded, he rose to the occasion, organized the proceedings, and as a result the almost daily demonstrations continue to this day, with the police force applying sometimes too little, sometimes too much force to keep the crowd under control, resulting in even more outrage from the part of the demonstrators.
So what would be a good solution? The government, including the acting opposition and all the other parties, acted according to the prevailing laws, and after assessing the situation they called for a vote of confidence> As a result, Gyurcsany was reinforced in his position. No new elections called, a move that the European community acknowledged with a sigh of relief. Why? Because constant elections and re-elections do not do a country any good. Let's just think of the case of Italy where changes of government have been so common in the last half a century that by now they are a yawn. But for them it is OK, the country goes about their business no matter what. It is another matter in these new democracies where institutions are not supported by a long history of routine procedures. In these countries people are inordinately suspicious of politicians, the average voter has no good methods yet of weighing the true merits of all the different parties, let alone the individual candidates (not as if the situation was so much better in the West). Hungary is not alone in the area as far as political problems are concerned. They have all kinds of problems in several of the neighbouring countries. In Poland they bent to the will of the people, they held new elections, which resulted in a wobbly coalition government that doesn't have the power to do nearly anything because of all the bickering. In the Czech Republic they also went ahead with new elections. The result: no government to speak of for months now.
Let us have a look at the possibilty of new elections in Hungary. The present ruling party and Gyurcsany, representing The Left, are in a way the heirs of the communist party of old. In spite of winning at the last election (because of those infamous promises) they have been eyed by the populace with a certain degree of suspicion from the start. Gyurcsany himself is under scrutiny for having become a wealthy man in a relatively short time, even though, as they say, "he has a communist past". This last remark, though, always makes me smile. Why? Well! He is fortyish. Communism fell 17 years ago. Do they accuse him for being a member of the communist youth organization? Who wasn't? Anyone who wanted to become a somebody, to have a good chance to get into university, had to be a member. That was the case all over in the Eastern Bloc countries, that is the case still today in Cuba, Dominican Republic, or any other country still under communist rule. I used to be a member! Does that mean that I was a communist? Are you kidding? Communism would not have toppled so easily if all those "party members" were actual communists. Plus, this party in Hungary absorbed the more moderate left wing Liberal movement, also.
Viktor Orban, as the other major contender in an eventual election, is not exactly the most savoury character a decent voter could vote for in good conscience. He is the representative of The Right, with its own baggage of irredentist historic idealogy. Not that there could be a danger of any ontoward action from the part of such a government within the European community, but even insensitive remarks can potentially cause problems.
So what would happen as a result of a new election? They could reelect Gyurcsany, whose government now has admitted to the planned austerity measures, like having to pay for medical services, drugs, university. On the other hand, the Right, if elected and then really sticking to their promises to the electorate, would just create a vicious cycle by further increasing the deficit.
There has been a tendency, specially so in the last week, to compare the events of today to the revolution in 1956. It is happening in the media, because it is a convenient parallel to draw while commemorating the 50th anniversary of that event. In the streets, people see it as an extension of the symbolism of those times. Yet, whatever is happening in that country right now is not a revolution, no matter how some people there would like us, and themselves, to believe that. The role of a revolution is to change the entire political system. The present system itself in Hungary is not in need to be changed, even the demosntrators in the streets would agree to that. Unfortunately those in the street do not realize that there are now other ways and places where situations like this can and should be resolved. Definitely not by confrontations with the police which is out there simply to restore order, to make sure that life is not upset in the capital to the point of an economic paralysis. Yet, the political right does not seem to be willing to give up this "street show" that seems to play so nicely into their court. Could they win in the end? Who knows... But it certainly would not be in interest of the country right now.
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